Posted December 10th, 2009 6:02 am

While the Democratic Party and the thoroughbred industry are still assessing what went wrong in the senate race Tuesday, there are important points to remember about the great results of 2009.

Recall that in 2008, Democratic challengers Kathy Groob, Steve Newberry and Carroll Hubbard all went down in defeat in their senate races. And in 2009, a non-election year, the Democratic candidates came close to running the table in beating Republicans. Of the three seats the Democrats challenged the Republicans for, in two races, the Democrats won.

So let the winds howl, let the dogs bray, and let the Republicans have their day. That day was yesterday. The cannons are loaded for 2010, and there are open seats and extremely vulnerable seats, and big-name Democratic challengers from one end of this state to the other. For the first time in 13 months, the Republicans won a state senate race. Handicapping the races, the oddsmakers have got to like the chances of the Democratic Party retaking the state senate in 2010.

Today, it’s time to saddle up again.

From the Lexington Herald-Leader:

Kentucky’s horse industry, which bet heavily on a Democratic win in Tuesday’s special state Senate election, wasn’t prepared for defeat and doesn’t have a short-term plan to advance legislation that would allow slots at racetracks, industry leaders say.
“We didn’t plan on losing, so we don’t have a strategy other than we want to attempt to continue to have our voices heard,” said Ric Waldman, a bloodstock consultant who is one of the directors of the issues group Keep Our Jobs in Kentucky Inc.

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2010 still remains a year in which the horse industry can gain the allies it needs to survive, and will provide fertile opportunities to complete the mission of retaking the state senate. The Republicans will have to defend Alice Forgy Kerr, who turned her back on Keeneland and the horse industry she is supposed to represent. If the still unnamed Democratic opponent doesn’t file against her, she probably is safe. If that candidate steps forward, she will be a substantial underdog.

The Republicans also have the Bob Leeper problem: David Williams’ antics in the senate made Leeper bolt the party, and while he still caucuses with them, the fact is, he could have a Republican opponent next year. His opponent on the Democratic side is Rex Smith, a strong and strongly funded Democratic opponent that does not have the horrible baggage that Carroll Hubbard had in the 2006 race. And recall that Hubbard came close to beating Leeper in that race with only a small fraction of the funding that Smith will bring.

Gary Tapp’s Bullitt/Spencer/Shelby County senate seat is also an open Republican seat next year. John Spainhour, a 58-year-old Shepherdsville lawyer, is challenging on the Democratic side, and will have the advantage of claiming the most populated county as his base.

Dan Seum in Louisville will also have to face voters and explain his opposition to Churchill Downs, and will face a tireless campaigner in Marty Meyer, whose father represented the district before Seum. Meyer has already amassed a good fundraising bankroll. Those are not the only strong contenders for 2010. Still unconfirmed candidates with strong credentials are looking at other districts with vulnerable incumbents.

To bring in consistent successes, all of these candidates need to have a cohesive vision. The Democratic Party needs to lay out in very clear terms that the funds from the expanded gaming for the state will be specifically committed for a particular purpose that all Kentuckians can understand.

That’s how the Kentucky lottery was passed (with scholarships being funded), and that’s how the Kentucky sales tax was funded (with benefits for WW2 and Korean war veterans being funded). When Kentuckians are presented with that clear vision, not only will the Democratic Party continue to win 2 out of 3 Republicans it challenges, it will increase the success rate from there. The funds will be there, the candidates will be willing to run, and with a solid message, the results will continue to be successful in 2010.

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