Generally, SurveyUSA has been the most accurate polling source. While a lot can happen in ten weeks, the results are the weekend survey are bad for Trey Grayson, and bad for Jack Conway in the primary races for Kentucky’s open U.S. Senate seat.
Mitch McConnell’s worst nightmare (and Jim DeMint’s BFF) Rand Paul continues to pound Grayson on the Republican side, 42 % to 27 %. If Grayson doesn’t start hitting Paul’s craziness hard, he is done, and the Kentucky Republican senate nominee could be someone who DeMint has held fundraisers for, and who would vote against Mitch McConnell as GOP leader.
On the Democratic side, Mongiardo has survived every conceivable gaffe and misstep by getting out, pressing the flesh, meeting and greeting and interacting with party faithful around the state. For all of Conway’s admirable positions on many issues, he is failing to organize anywhere, and has consistently shown an unwillingness to enthusiastically meet and greet at any event. Without that willingness to meet and greet and press the flesh, Conway, who is doing an excellent job as Kentucky’s attorney general, has let a competitive race slip away. Conway does still have a fundraising advantage, but does not appear able to translate that into a lead in the polls.
The really tantalizing figure for Democrats is the general election numbers—admittedly, a generic matchup. Usually, in a mid-term election the party of the presidency is at a distinct disadvantage. But Kentucky has two extreme wild cards: Jim Bunning and Rand Paul. Bunning of course drew national disgrace by cutting off unemployment benefits, and Kentuckians noticed when Rand Paul enthusiastically announced his approval of Bunning’s actions.
So the SurveyUSA numbers showing a tossup right now in the fall are very encouraging, especially since independents and conservative Democrats will not be drawn to someone who has managed to hide their fringe views that may be able to prevail in a conservative primary. However, in the general election, the swing voters will run away from someone who’s too kooky for Kentucky.
The general election poll numbers:
After asking Republican likely primary voters which Republican they will vote for in the primary, and after asking Democratic likely primary voters which Democrat they will vote for in the primary, SurveyUSA asked all registered KY voters, regardless of party affiliation or likeliness to vote in a primary, to think ahead to the general election in November. Today, 43% of registered Kentucky voters say they will vote for the Republican US Senate candidate in November; 42% say they will vote for the Democratic candidate. 16% today say they are undecided, including 29% of independents.
All the talk about Conway, the sitty-boy, being liberal is talk and no walk. He’s farther to the right than greyson. Don’t tell me I’m wrong unless you have it from his mouth … in writing and witnessed, signed and extra copies.
The JeffCo dems are soooooooooooo contemptuous of the rest of the state that they are convinced that if they stf and keep sitty-boy on the reservation, manage turnout and keep the C-J on topic, it’s in the bag. I have news:
1. C-J isn’t going to endorse sitty-boy, even if he wins the nomination. He’s catholic and if he renounces Roe v. Wade he’s cooked for hypocrisy & the C-J will pass. They are now a full blown profit center and accept the reality that ad revenue is more critical than under priced circulation figures. If sitty-boy supports Roe v. Wade, he’s out at church. He will be condemned to Hell and the way (one-way) will be paved and the Archdiocese will pay his way. His eclesiastical life will be hell.
2. Same with H-L
3. Out state Dems will support Mangy-Mongi cause he’s not from the golden triangle. Same way Beshear will be re-elected.
4. There are probably about five people in the state that can win this for the Democrats: Stein, Scorsone, Marksberry, Wil Cox & maybe Price. But it will take the JeffCo Dems eating a lot of pride, mending some fences and swallowing some crow to wash down the pride, and it ain’t Old Crow – they’s republican’ts and pro-lifers & other fowl & foul things.
5. Mr.Moore up there in F’Fort needs to make a few phone calls, deflate some egos, build up some expectations, be the party chairman and get the job done or the whole world will be laughing at us … can’t fucking replace that tired old shit-for-brains, washed-up bean-baller that is on everyone’s shitlist!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Bob, you have to understand that is is always “bad news for the Democrats”. Welcome to the world of the “liberal press”.